How much did Dubai warehouse rents rise over the past year? Two answers reached print a day apart in September 2026: 6.8% and 12.4%. They cannot merge, because “Dubai warehouse rents” is carrying two different measurements: a consultant’s survey of asking rents on space described as supply-constrained, and a small unit on a registered lease, most often renewed by the tenant already in it.
Where a Dubai warehouse rents headline enters a leasing decision
A Dubai warehouse rents headline enters a leasing decision at two points: when a landlord and a sitting tenant settle a renewal, and when an occupier budgets for space it does not yet hold. Both readings apply one twelve-month figure to a single unit, and the 2026 numbers divide along that same line between existing and new occupancy.
Two September headlines for the same twelve months
Emirates 24|7 reported on 13 September 2026 that Dubai warehouse rents rose 6.8% year on year; Cavendish Maxwell reported 12.4% on 14 September, both citywide. The 6.8% and the 2.3% quarterly change beside it match, to the decimal, the figures JLL published on 31 July for Dubai industrial rents in the second quarter.
The Emirates 24|7 article, headlined “Dubai warehouse rents rise 6.8% as global investors target logistics assets”, attributes its figure to an Emirates NBD report and states: “The report showed that average warehouse rents across commercial, industrial and storage facilities in Dubai reached AED49 per square foot, representing a 2.3% quarterly increase and a 6.8% rise year-on-year.” The Emirates NBD report itself could not be located in open access, so its per-square-foot level is quoted here as a claim and not used as a figure.
The Cavendish Maxwell report for the first half of 2026 states: “Warehouse rental rates in Dubai recorded a 12.4% year-on-year increase in H1 2026, with all monitored locations recording positive annual growth.” Same city, same twelve months, a gap of 5.6 percentage points.
The registered warehouse: small units and four renewals in five
Cavendish Maxwell’s figure describes warehouses on registered lease contracts; its report for the first half of 2026 counts approximately 10,000 warehouse contracts, of which about 8,200 were renewals, up 21.6%, and about 1,800 new contracts, down 51.8%. Its charts credit Property Monitor, and its edition for the third quarter of 2025 explained a volume fall by fewer “new contract registrations”.
Units of 2,000 to 5,000 sq ft made up 51.6% of those contracts, units below 5,000 sq ft 68%, and units above 10,000 sq ft 19.3%. The renewal share rose to about 82% from about 65% a year earlier, when the report’s chart shows 6,800 renewals among 10,500 contracts. The 2026 registered warehouse is, in the main, a small unit whose occupier stayed.
The report does not say whether the 12.4% is calculated across all registered contracts or across new ones alone, nor does it split the rate between renewals and new leases — precisely what a renewal negotiation would need, and not estimated here from the contract mix.
The surveyed warehouse: asking rates across three consultancies
Consultant surveys frame Dubai industrial rents around space on offer. The JLL summary for the second quarter of 2026 reports Dubai industrial rents up 6.8% year on year and 2.3% on the quarter, citing constrained Grade A supply and rental concessions of up to 15% in select areas.
CBRE’s review of the same quarter unsettles 6.8% further. Its industrial section states that average annual rental growth “remains in double digits” — a UAE-wide figure, not Dubai’s alone, folding in Abu Dhabi, where CBRE records 4.4% growth to AED 501 per square metre a year. Inside Dubai, it names Dubai Industrial City, Dubai Investments Park and National Industries Park as running ahead of the roughly 10% at JAFZA, Ras Al Khor and Umm Ramool, without a percentage of their own.
The Knight Frank review of the first half of 2026, released on 29 July, sizes Dubai demand at 12.3 million sq ft of new requirements: 35.5% for 10,001 to 50,000 sq ft, 32.2% for 50,001 to 100,000 sq ft and 27% above 100,000 sq ft. It prices Grade A space in Al Quoz at AED 90 psf, up 6%.
On those shares, 94.7% of the requirements Knight Frank recorded were for more than 10,000 sq ft, against 19.3% of the contracts Cavendish Maxwell counted. Requirements are not signed leases, and JLL gives no rent definition on its summary page; its 15% concession ceiling marks how far a surveyed rent and a signed one can sit apart.
Same districts, different rates of growth
Across the six Dubai areas for which both a registered-contract figure and a surveyed figure can be matched, the registered series runs higher in five. The registered column below is Cavendish Maxwell for the first half of 2026; the surveyed column names its publisher and period in each row.
| Area | Registered contracts, H1 2026 | Surveyed rents: publisher, period | Surveyed change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai, all locations | 12.4% | JLL, Q2 2026, industrial rents | 6.8% |
| Al Quoz | 10.1% | Knight Frank, H1 2026, Grade A | 6% |
| Ras Al Khor | 13.9% | CBRE, Q2 2026 | around 10% |
| Umm Ramool | 12.7% | CBRE, Q2 2026 | around 10% |
| Jebel Ali | 15.5% | CBRE, Q2 2026 (JAFZA) | around 10% |
| Dubai Industrial City | 15% | Knight Frank, H1 2026 | 16% |
Ras Al Khor and Umm Ramool are exact area matches; Jebel Ali is paired with CBRE’s adjoining JAFZA free zone, the closest match available rather than an identical label. Dubai Investments Park appears in the registered series at 13.6%, but CBRE gives it no percentage — only naming it, with Dubai Industrial City and National Industries Park, among Dubai’s fastest-growing locations, all three ahead of the roughly 10% shown here. Consultant surveys do not converge on 6.8% either, and no publisher gives one 2026 rate covering both populations; a midpoint between 6.8% and 12.4% would describe neither. Stated with its bases, the comparison is a range: 6.8% citywide from JLL, higher again at several named submarkets, and 12.4% citywide from Cavendish Maxwell’s registered contracts.
A third quantity under the same heading, total rental value, rose 9.9% to AED 1.8 billion while contracts fell 4.5%, so average value per registered contract rose about 15.1%, that is 1.099 divided by 0.955. Value per contract moves with unit size as well as with rent, which is why it cannot stand in for either rate.
Before a Dubai warehouse rent figure enters a lease decision
A Dubai warehouse rent figure becomes usable once its population is known; four checks establish that from what the publishers print, and apply equally to the next releases — JLL’s third-quarter summary, estimated for late October, and Cavendish Maxwell’s third-quarter report, whose 2025 edition appeared on 12 January.
- Registered or surveyed: lease registrations, or a consultant’s view of space on offer — the 12.4% is the first kind; JLL, Knight Frank and CBRE publish the second.
- Renewal share: what share of a registered series’ contracts are renewals — about 8,200 of 10,000 in the first half of 2026.
- Unit size: 68% of registered contracts were below 5,000 sq ft, while 94.7% of Knight Frank’s recorded requirements were above 10,000 sq ft.
- Rate or value: AED 1.8 billion of rental value is not a rent, and 15.1% per contract is not a rate; the Cavendish Maxwell report carries both beside the 12.4%.
This material is informational in nature and does not constitute legal, tax or financial advice.